Main container lines are returning Asia-Europe services to Suez, releasing capacity and putting pressure on spot rates. Here is what the published figures mean for UK importers, and what to watch before Chinese New Year 2027.
The main container alliances are returning their Asia-Europe services to the Suez Canal. That shorter route releases capacity that was tied up going around the Cape of Good Hope, and it is already weighing on spot rates. UK importers buying from China should plan for lower rates in 2027, and for the risk that a fresh security scare could send ships back around the Cape.
Evergreen is restarting Suez transits this week, and the Premier Alliance is due to follow next month. Linerlytica expects all three main alliances, plus MSC, to be back via Suez by the first quarter of 2027, with Zim remaining on the Cape route. Drewry's World Container Index for Shanghai-Rotterdam was US$3,615 per 40ft in the week to 6 November 2026, down 2% week on week, and November rate rises have not held. Xeneta says 600,000 teu of capacity has already been released and expects spot rates to fall about 30% over 2027, while warning that the Middle East situation remains fragile.
According to The Loadstar on 3 November 2026, Evergreen will join its Ocean Alliance partners in sending ships eastbound through Suez this week, including the Ever Eon and Ever Edit on 7 and 11 November. Yang Ming and HMM are due to join their Premier Alliance partners on Suez crossings next month. The Gemini partners, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, have also signalled a full Suez resumption by the first quarter of 2027.
Carriers diverted around the Cape in late 2023 after attacks in the Red Sea. The longer voyage absorbed ship capacity and stretched transit times. A return to Suez shortens the voyage and puts that capacity back into the market, which is why rate sentiment has softened even before every loop has switched.
The Loadstar on 6 November 2026 reported these published figures. Treat them as source quotes, not as a quote for your next booking.
We have not converted these figures into pounds sterling, because the published sources quote US dollars. Your landed cost in GBP will also depend on the exchange rate, the Incoterm, and whether you are on a spot or contract rate. For a wider freight comparison, see our guides to shipping costs from China to the UK and sea freight versus air freight.
If you are coming off an annual contract, do not assume last year's rate still applies, and do not assume the lowest spot offer will last. A softer market can favour shorter commitments or a mix of contract cover and spot, but only if your volume and dates are clear. Ask your forwarder to show you the last accepted rate, the current offer, and how a Suez versus Cape routing would change the transit.
LCL (less than container load) users should be especially careful. Groupage depends on other shippers' cargo and on the consolidator's cut-off. A faster mainline transit does not always mean your pallet leaves China sooner. Confirm the CFS cut-off, the intended routing, and whether a blank sailing would roll your cargo. Our primer on working with a UK freight forwarder covers what to ask before you book. Incoterms still decide who pays for the ocean leg: see FOB, CIF, EXW and DDP explained.
The official Spring Festival holiday in China runs from 5 to 13 February 2027, with Chinese New Year's Day on Saturday 6 February. Factories often slow down before the holiday and restart in stages afterwards, and space on vessels can tighten in the weeks either side. If you need goods in the UK for spring, work backwards from the in-warehouse date now, not in January. We have a fuller planning note in Chinese New Year 2027: factory deadlines and stock planning.
Xeneta's Peter Sand, quoted by The Loadstar, put both sides of the coin clearly: a full return to Suez could see freight rates fall sharply, but a deterioration in Red Sea security could force carriers back around the Cape and put upward pressure on rates. That is a planning risk, not a prediction. Port congestion at transhipment or European hubs can also eat some of the time you hoped to gain from the shorter sea route.
A lower freight rate is only part of landed cost. Customs Duty and import VAT still apply, as our UK import duties from China guide and import tax and duty calculator guide set out. If a duty suspension or preference may apply, start with our new UK duty relief guide.
Xeneta expects spot rates to decline some 30% over 2027 if the return to Suez holds, but that is a market outlook, not a guarantee for your booking. Security risks, demand and blank sailings can still move the rate the other way.
Evergreen is restarting transits this week (7 and 11 November 2026 on named sailings). The Premier Alliance is due to follow next month, and The Loadstar reports that the three main alliances plus MSC are set for a full Suez return by the first quarter of 2027. Zim is described as remaining on the Cape route.
Only if the stock date can move. A softer market is useful, but missing a Chinese New Year production window, or a retail date, usually costs more than a modest rate fall. Model both options with your forwarder.
Yes. We can help you map factory price, freight and duty before you place the order. Your forwarder or customs broker should confirm the booking and the legal treatment. See our pricing page for how we work with UK brands.
Share the product, quantity and target arrival date and we will help you line up freight, duty and a realistic timetable, including Chinese New Year 2027.
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